Following an awe-inspiring comeback in the LEC 2023 Summer regular season, Fnatic were due to some regression, but few expected it to happen in the first round of LEC 2023 Summer Groups. Despite entering the second stage of the split as heavy favourites, Fnatic lost their opening match of Group B against SK Gaming (0-2), which puts them in a very rough spot as they might not make the LoL World Championship 2023.

Their loss against SK Gaming can be mainly attributed to SK’s efficient movement around the map and Fnatic’s macro mistakes. The main thing to take away from that game is that Fnatic have some things to iron out before contesting the LEC crown.

MAD Lions suffered a similar loss against Excel Esports, who punished MAD’s sloppiness and secured an easy victory. Seeing MAD Lions and Fnatic lose their opening games in a similar fashion now brings the question – how will this meeting go?

Fnatic and MAD Lions are both somewhat inconsistent teams, but if we look beyond what they showed in the first round, Fnatic look like the better team. However, their head-to-head price is far too short.

This can easily turn into a messy game, and it wouldn’t be too shocking to see MAD Lions win. But at +110, a bet on over 2.5 maps is the better choice.

KOI lost their opening match of the LEC 2023 Summer Groups against G2 Esports (0-2), while Team Heretics choked a 1-0 series lead against Team BDS and lost 1-2. And while KOI’s defeat is less concerning, it’s hard to defend Emil “Larssen” Larsson and his crew for what they showed on Sunday.

The big reason for Team Heretics’ defeat against Team BDS was their weak top side which is also the leading factor for why Heretics haven’t done better this split. Top laner Shunsuke “Evi” Murase is not good enough to compete at this level of play and will be the weak point KOI will look to exploit. But despite having a clear win condition, KOI’s top side isn’t that strong either.

We have two teams with very similar flaws, so stylistically, they should match up nicely. Other lanes tip slightly in favour of Heretics, but not enough to justify having Heretics priced as -151.52 favourites.

KOI can be two-faced, and the lack of consistency makes them a risky team to bet on. Still, at plus money, KOI offer some value.

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MAD Lions and Excel Esports will kick off the LEC 2023 Summer Groups on Saturday, July 15, when the two LoL esports teams meet for the first time since the second week of the regular season. Excel Esports won that match, but it was a complete fiesta, so it’s tough to take much from it.

MAD Lions ended the LEC 2023 Summer regular season in seventh place with a 4-5 record, while Excel Esports clawed their way up to a third-place finish with a 5-4 record. The one-win difference doesn’t hold any weight in ranking the teams. But despite being down in the head-to-head and finishing the season below Excel, MAD Lions are priced as 1.57 favourites for Saturday’s game.

This makes some sense since MAD Lions are a good team in the best-of series; however, they’re also one of the most overrated LEC teams this season. They have some of the worst performance metrics in all essential stats, including gold differential per minute (-93), first blood rate (22.2% FB) and Herald control (22.2%), along with a negative gold differential at 15 minutes (-68).

Excel Esports aren’t that much better and not a team that’ll make it far in LEC 2023 Summer Groups, but unlike MAD Lions, Excel produced more quality wins and are more consistent.

There is no good reason to back MAD Lions at the offered LEC betting odds. They can be challenging to beat in best-of-three games, but MAD Lions haven’t shown enough this split.

Fnatic picked SK Gaming as their round-one opponent, despite losing against SK in the final week of the LEC 2023 Summer regular season. Fnatic justified their choice by stating that SK Gaming should be easier to beat than MAD Lions in a best-of-three game which is fair.

Fnatic did a fine job picking the easier opponent for their opening match of LEC 2023 Summer Groups, but realistically, there aren’t many teams that can challenge them. Fnatic and G2 Esports were by far the best teams of the regular season, and Fnatic’s upset loss against SK in the final week doesn’t change that.

Ranking Fnatic so high might be a bit of an overreaction, as they have not been challenged by any team outside of G2, nor did they have to play very well to win seven games. So it’s fair to feel cautiously optimistic about Fnatic, who might’ve overperformed a bit.

Still, while Fnatic have a lot more to prove, this is stylistically a good game for them. SK Gaming’s weak bottom lane will be a problem, and if they don’t find a way to stabilise it, Fnatic will run away with the game. This, however, is much easier said than done due to the pressure Marek “Humanoid” Brázda can create all over the map.

SK Gaming won against Fnatic last time out, but based on the released voice comms, Fnatic didn’t take that game too seriously. That loss meant nothing, and we have enough data to support Fnatic as a superior team.

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