?TSM and Spacestation Gaming are already locked for the Major, but they’re still competing for first place. With a 6-0-0-2 record, TSM are two points ahead of Spacestation Gaming, who are 4-2-0-2, meaning that SSG need to win in regulation if they wish to pass TSM.

This is a match between the strongest North American Rainbow Six Siege teams and two organisations with somewhat of a rivalry. They regularly clash for the top regional spot, and they even met in the 2020 Six Invitational upper-bracket finals when SSG came out ahead 2-1 and won the whole thing.

Across 17 head-to-head meetings dating back to 2019, TSM have won nine series (9-1-7) but just one of their most recent four – in July, during NAL Stage 2 (8-6). Admittedly, TSM have looked better in Stage 3 and perhaps should be favoured, but we couldn’t count out SSG. This should be a close affair, so we’ll take over 11.5 rounds.

?Mirage have been performing admirably well, going from a team that consistently finished bottom six to a squad that might make the Major. They’re not quite there yet, but with a 4-0-3-1 record and 15 points, Mirage just need a single point, and they’re in the clear.

Their next opponents, Soniqs are 5-0-0-3 with 15 points and a +8 round difference, which is good enough to sit above Mirage in the standings. And just like Mirage, they need at least one point to secure a top-four finish or hope that Astralis don’t defeat Oxygen Esports.

Mirage and Soniqs last met during NAL Stage 2 in July, when Mirage claimed their second head-to-head victory (7-5) and first since April 2021. Moreover, Mirage are in better shape ahead of the final playday, with just one loss from their last five – in contrast to Soniqs, who have won just one game over the same stretch.

The esports betting sites have Soniqs as the favourites, which isn’t too crazy, knowing that their ceiling is much higher. But we haven’t seen enough from Soniqs to bet on them at the offered price. The value is with Mirage.

?Astralis need to defeat Oxygen Esports and hope that the Mirage vs Soniqs match doesn’t go into overtime to qualify for Six J?nk?ping Major 2022. It might happen; however, most will fall on the result of the Mirage vs Soniqs match, which will be known by the time Astralis play.

Still, even if Astralis are eliminated from the Major contention, we wouldn’t count on them to just give in and lose, especially not against Oxygen Esports, who have looked very weak during this stage. Of eight games played, Oxygen have won just three, but two of their wins came last week when Oxygen beat Soniqs (7-5) and DarkZero (7-2).

Astralis put together the same perfect record with wins against XSET (7-3) and Soniqs (7-3), so the two squads look fairly evenly matched. We expect Astralis to win, but Oxygen have shown enough improvement for us to believe that they can keep it close. Take Oxygen Esports with a 1.5-round advantage at even odds with BetOnline.

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?Spacestation Gaming are priced as $1.67 favourites for this match, which is fair since they’re one of the top teams at the tournament and are 1-0 up in the head-to-head with TSM, who they beat 7-2 in July. Even though TSM deserve some respect for their close series with Dark Zero (8-6) and a commanding win against beastcoast (7-1), we don’t expect them to do well on Wednesday.

TSM are 2-9 across their last 11 outings and 6-11 since their previous meeting with Spacestation Gaming. Their only notable wins over that stretch came against Susquehanna Soniqs (7-4) and the Six Invitational 2021 finalists Team Liquid (7-4), who they stunned during the Six Mexico Major 2021 group stage.

TSM can have their moments, but those have become very scarce of late. Therefore, we will trust Spacestation Gaming to deliver and take one step closer to qualifying for the Six November 2021 Major.

?Following Susquehanna Soniqs’s 7-4 victory against Dark Zero last week, Seth “supr” Hoffman now has six kills to 36 deaths. To put it into perspective, supr is averaging 1.5 kills per map, which is one of the worst individual performances we’ve seen in the recent history of Rainbow Six Siege esports.

Yet his team is still winning, which only goes to show how good Susquehanna Soniqs are. They’re 3-0-0-1 after four rounds of play, having beaten two of the top teams in the region in Spacestation Gaming (7-5) and Dark Zero (7-4), but they also lost to XSET (3-7) two weeks back.

Beastcoast are 2-0-0-2 with wins against XSET (7-4) and Mirage (7-2), and losses against TSM (1-7) and Oxygen Esports (1-7). Clearly, beastcoast aren’t one of the top contenders for the title, but they are efficient in exploiting opponents’ weaknesses.

Susquehanna Soniqs are stronger, but we wouldn’t bet on them at -454.55. At the offered R6S betting odds, we have to take a longshot bet on beastcoast mainly due to supr’s disastrous form.

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?Susquehanna Soniqs enter this match with a 2-0-0-1 record, with wins against Astralis (7-3) and Spacestation Gaming (7-5) and a loss against XSET (3-7). Outside of their upset loss against XSET, Soniqs have done well, largely thanks to Alexander “Yeti” Lawson and Pablo “Gryxr” Rebeil.

Dark Zero have played two games this stage and won both with 7-4 against Mirage and 8-6 against TSM. Their win against Mirage wasn’t that surprising since Dark Zero were $1.34 favourites, while they were priced at $1.60 to defeat TSM.

Susquehanna Soniqs last met with Dark Zero in July during the second stage of the North American League, losing 6-8. Soniqs have since not improved by much and are 2-6 across their last eight. What’s more, Dark Zero now field the reigning Six Invitational champion, Troy “Canadian” Jaroslawski, which is just another reason why we are siding with the R6S betting favourites here.

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Astralis (formerly Disrupt Gaming) enter this bout as $2.00 underdogs due to their poor showing in their last meeting with TSM (3-7). However, that bout happened way back in June, so we shouldn’t put too much weight on it.

Astralis are 1-3 with losses against Susquehanna Soniqs (3-7), Oxygen Esports (4-7), and Spacestation Gaming (2-7), and a win against XSET (7-3). Unfortunately, TSM have been just as unconvincing with the same 1-3 record across their last four, with losses against Team Empire (4-7), Oxygen Esports (3-7), and Dark Zero (6-8), while their sole win came against beastcoast (7-1).

This is a match between two teams struggling with their form, and there is no way to tell how this affair will play out. However, we like TSM, who have the talent needed to improve start producing results we had seen earlier this year.

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